Weekly Market Observations: Heard From Fortress Hill (19 Apr 2024)

Correction in US Market and Further Down in HK Market

This past week witnesses a small correction in the US stock market and further down with Hong Kong stocks. We pick AIA (HKG:1299) as a target for shorting and buy put option@HKD47 strike and sell call option@HKD49 strike as AIA rebounds to around HKD48.5 level after diving as low as HKD45.25. We keep the short position over weekend, after buying Tracker Fund (HKG:2800) call@16.5 strike to hedge against the market from rebounding, as HSI is already quite low at around 16200 level and seems possible to rebound next week.

Gold Seems to be the Most Reasonable Bet upon Correction in a Still Fat-Valuation US Market

For the US market, stocks slide slightly over the past week but we are still holding USD cash as there is close to 5% interest from holding cash and we currently see no better opportunity to surpass that. We are considering gold and may buy into gold etf (NYSE: GLD), as we think commodity will continue to be out-performer and is more stable than oil. We are exploring to long gold by selling put option to keep the USD cash position to receive the high  interest.